shattering the 43-year-old record of 20.1% set in 1978," wrote James Wood in the 2022 Housing Forecast Executive Report. Peak-to-trough, with the peak being May 2022, he expects prices to decline by a percentage somewhere in the teens, depending on what happens with interest rates over coming months. Despite the wild 2021 ride we all took inflation, a spike in gas prices, and a persistent global health crisis 2022 is looking to be another unique year for the Utah real estate market. While neither Wood nor Eskic are predicting a catastrophic, 2007-like crash, they do expect 2023 to be a challenging year, especially for homebuilders that leaned hard into speculative building in 2021. This would place . How much do homes in Saint George, UT cost? This is the MOST ACCURATE UTAH Housing Market Forecast for 2022. The direction and pace at which housing supply changes indicate whether the options for buyers are increasing or decreasing. I expect the region will continue to see downward pressure on home prices, but a major correction is unlikely. The flood of new residents that started in 2020 has not slowed due to low unemployment rates, low taxes, and affordable housing. From peak-to-trough, with the peak being May 2022, he expects prices to decline by a percentage somewhere in the mid to low teens, depending on what happens with interest rates over coming months. (2023), Cost of Living in Hawaii: What You Need to Know (2023), How to Find the Best Mortgage Rates (2023), Outdoor activity opportunities are unlimited. Key Market Stats for the Utah Housing Market According to September 2022 data, some of the key market stats for the Utah housing market appear as follows: Median home price: $533,500 - a 5.6% Y.o.Y. If youre looking to buy or sell real estate in Utah, you want to ensure youre working with a real estate agent who can help you navigate the rapidly changing conditions of the local housing markets. The cops came, quipped Dejan Eskic, senior research fellow at the University of Utahs Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute, one of Utahs leading housing experts. Sign In. Each year, the Sal. Single Family Rentals Facing Challenges in 2023, January 2023 Mortgage Rates: What to Expect, Existing Home Sales Fall in November 2022. Wood said he was a little bit more optimistic, predicting minor blips that will stabilize into the green after only a few quarters. He graduated from Spanish Fork High School. He's predicting Utah home prices will drop 9% year over year in 2023. About Us According to the Utah real estate market predictions from industry experts, there will be an influx of sellers in the state given the present condition of not having enough supply to meet the markets unprecedented growth. Utah Housing Market Forecast, What To Look For In 2022 The housing market in 2021 made the "American dream" feel more and more out of reach for a lot of people. The market was suddenly plunged into ice cold water when the Federal Reserves war with record levels of inflation sent mortgage rates skyward, and the mask that helped drive home prices so high suddenly lifted. Keep in mind, however, that during the pandemic housing frenzy from early 2020 to late 2022, the nations median home price ballooned by over 41%, so even if the most pessimistic predictions pan out, they arent slated to erase the historic price gains seen over the last two years. Homes that sold above list price likely received multiple offers. 2023 will be tough for sales. In many respects it will be an uphill journey given. As for interest rates, Wood noted forecasts vary widely, anywhere from 5% to 9%, but he personally expects rates to bounce between 6.5% and 7.5% in 2023. Why is it taking two weeks, a month, six weeks?. Join Us Find an experienced, trusted local real estate agent with FastExpert. Should You Invest in the Phoenix Housing Market in 2020? Like many other housing markets around the country, the Utah housing market has reached new heights during the pandemic as a result of a perfect storm of low inventory, high demand, and interest rates near historic lows. They also anticipate prices to grow 8.5% and sales to grow 15.2%. A high or growing percentage of homes selling above listprice indicates that the housing market is competitive and bidding wars are becoming more common. Right now, the continued rise in both mortgage rates and home price have kept many out of the housing market. Inflation is outpacing most salaries, decreasing the value of the dollar. over year. Overall, Yun has predicted U.S. home sales to fall by 6.8% in 2023 compared to 2022, and he expects home prices to increase only 0.3%, or essentially flatline. It was a year in which a boiling hot housing market saw historic deterioration, as Fortune put it. How the pandemic housing frenzy which drove housing prices up to unimaginable levels in 2021 and into early 2022, especially in Western states like Idaho and Utah came to a grinding halt mid year, and the market crashed down to reality. Buyers were actually offering pizza, cookies, even Utah Jazz tickets to literally sweeten the deal, all kinds of crazy stuff that real estate agents had to make sure to handle correctly. Housing prices are deemed overvalued when their local incomes, job market, and economy do not support the sale prices. With their buying power significantly diminished, house hunters find themselves priced out of the market or may consider postponing their home-buying plans until interest rates return to a more affordable level. Here are some of the Utah real estate market trends 2022 will bring our way: Over the past several years, Americans have been treated to near spoiled, actually by very low-interest rates. No, you shouldnt wait to buy a home. In December 2022, Cache County home prices were up 2.1% compared to last year, selling for a median price of $444K. Even as mortgage rates in recent weeks have ticked down slightly, economists are expecting higher rates to continue to dampen sales throughout 2023. Branca said if someone like him is struggling to buy, he cant imagine what its like for people living on lower incomes. Colorado Data While they both agree the market is in the midst of a price correction after two years of runaway demand amid the pandemic housing frenzy, they have differing outlooks for just how deep that price correction will run next year. If 2022 was a roller coaster year for the housing market, 2023 is expected to bring a painful but necessary real estate hangover. This was down 45% compared to the same period the previous year and down 27.8% compared to the third quarter of 2022. Realtor.com isn't the only group offering a strong forecast for the Salt Lake City real estate scene in 2022. Thats not good news for affordability or Utahs housing shortage, which they calculate hit 31,000 units after the big home building boom of 2021. For renters, these relentless price increases mean the path to ownership has narrowed even further. If you are looking to purchase your primary residence in todays market, then yes, the time to buy is today! When he first started looking in November 2021 and into early 2022, Salt Lake Countys median single-family home price had hit $580,000, up 24% from a year earlier, according to the Salt Lake Board of Realtors. He has taken his life experiences working with people and transitioned into helping families and individuals make the very best decisions when it comes to real estate. Utah is expected to continue its rapid growth and will need to see an increase in available housing to accommodate the incoming population. An increasing population and a shortage of homes have increased house prices in Utah. The latest migration analysis is based on a sample of about two If the agent you hired through FastExpert does not perform up to your expectations, we will help resolve the problem. Along with his love of family, he has a very strong competitive spirit, is passionate about personal development, and truly cares for others. Mortgage rates are primarily based on the prices and yields of bonds, and while bonds take cues from several places, they are always impacted by inflation and the economy at large. The median sale price for a house in Salt Lake City has reached $550,000, increasing by 6.3% compared to the previous year, and the median number of days on the market was 32, compared to 17 in September 2021. Utah house prices are significantly higher than the national average, and local salaries are not keeping up with the price growth and inflation. In Utah, housing prices have begun to decline, down from their peak in May, when the median sales price of Salt Lake County homes was $565,600. The jarring pace of Utah's housing market and its impact on Utahns "is why we think these investments are so important," Cox said. However, the sale volume has decreased significantly in the past year, with 3,219 houses sold in September 2021, representing a 26.7% decline in year-over-year comparisons. Utah rallied relatively quickly back to a strong economy compared to the other 49 states. As a result, average days on market have increased, and sellers are becoming more open to negotiation. Strong job growth cities like Boise and Salt Lake City are harder to forecast, he said, as affordability issues keep first-time buyers from getting into the market. That said, listing prices were higher in Morgan, Wasatch, and Summit counties compared to the prior quarter. Forecasted home price change: +8.5%. Homes sold fastest in Salt Lake County and slowest in Summit County. Such a decline is extremely unlikely in Utah in 2023 and 2024, Wood wrote. Homes that sold above list price likely received multiple offers. Nationally, a growing number of experts and firms are predicting U.S. home prices will fall, some expecting slight, single-digit drops, while others expect prices to fall by double digits, perhaps even over 20%. It just seems so odd to be in such a comfortable position and not have that as a practical option. Heres what volatile mortgage rates are doing to your purchasing power, Stuck between rent hikes and high home prices, this family is scraping by to afford a home, still cant afford to buy something at a significantly lower quality, How the housing market is making boomers richer and millennials poorer, how many other Utahns the market has priced out, 79% of Utah households couldnt afford the states median priced home, Why two housing experts disagree on how much Utah home prices will drop in 2023, National Association of Realtors chief economist Lawrence Yun, What state lawmakers are doing to address Utahs housing crisis, Department of Labor reports that child labor has increased by nearly 70% since 2018, Feds hardwire child care benefits to $39 billion in CHIPS Act funding, Grit and circumstance: Bestselling author Angela Duckworth brings her wisdom to BYU, The starter home in Utah is extinct: How first-time homebuyers could get 20K for new homes, How a new service aims to help teens remove explicit internet images. The discussion between Eskic and Wood was moderated by Clark Ivory, CEO of Ivory Homes, which is Utahs largest homebuilder. We always have deceleration in the rate of increases as the cycle plays itself out. Utah remains a sellers market as inventory levels have yet to return to their pre-pandemic levels. Browse through the largest marketplace of Real Estate professionals, We have an in-house team that will guide you through the process. Real Estate Investing for Beginners: Where to Invest in Real Estate, Airbnb Rental Income in 2021: The 100 Best US Cities, Why You Should Be Investing in San Antonio Real Estate, Top 9 Most Profitable Airbnb Locations with Double-Digit Cash on Cash Return, Research Shows the Nashville Housing Market Is Hot for 2019. So Branca wasnt expecting to buy his dream home. Heres why, The Wests sharp housing market correction: Heres how fast home prices have fallen in 4 months, Home sales are crashing down to reality in the West, What state lawmakers are doing to address Utahs housing crisis, Department of Labor reports that child labor has increased by nearly 70% since 2018, Feds hardwire child care benefits to $39 billion in CHIPS Act funding, Grit and circumstance: Bestselling author Angela Duckworth brings her wisdom to BYU, The starter home in Utah is extinct: How first-time homebuyers could get 20K for new homes, How a new service aims to help teens remove explicit internet images. However, because of the stiff competition, Utahns who are looking to buy property should prepare themselves not just financially and physically but also mentally. In 2021 the average interest rate was 2.96%, the lowest interest rate that FreddieMac measured since 1971. Sellers could no longer do whatever they wanted, Perry said, and suddenly buyers had more options at least those who could still afford to buy. Additionally. Comparatively speaking, I make more money than my parents combined income at my age and still cant afford to buy something at a significantly lower quality than what they were able to purchase at that same age, Branca said. Theres going to be a terrible consolidation, he said, though he added he believes ultimately itll be good for the industry., In 2020 and 2021, when Congress was writing COVID-19 stimulus checks, Kelman said real estate diversified in an interesting way because those stimulus checks allowed people to experiment with real estate.. Nationwide, housing pandemic hot spots in the West have been among the first to see sale prices slashed. Copyright: 2023 Redfin. At the same time, the number of homes sold fell 34.7% and the number of homes for sale rose 81.9%. Both bearded men chuckled, along with laughs and applause from the audience. If you are investing in real estate properties to rent out as vacation homes, find out the short-term rental laws in the city and county youre considering. 36 days on the market. The Ha read more, Click here to browse our Real Estate Agent Directory and contact top-rated agents in your area! Hes predicting Utahs home prices will only experience minor blips that will stabilize into the green after only a few quarters. Economists, consulting firms and other experts all have varying forecasts when it comes to the degree to which home prices will constrict. But what about the increase in interest rates? Historically, brief and prolonged price declines in Utah went hand in hand with joblessness and recessions, both of which dont seem likely in the next two to three years. These two organizations along with Freddie Mac and the National Association of Realtors predict that rates will steadily rise throughout 2022. Wasatch County makes its way to our Utah housing market forecast for 2022 because it has attracted big-city folks from San Francisco and New York for relocation. According to him, about half a million Californians browsed the website UtahRealEstate.com in search of property to buy. FastExpert partner and Utah real estate agent, Preston Hicks, shares his professional perspective on the Utah housing market. Inventory is on its way up, with 13,795 homes for sale in September 2022, 25,3% more than the previous year. At the very least, folks can expect some sort of moderation over the next few years but not a decline. In the final quarter of 2022, 5,145 homes sold in the areas covered by this report. Prices were 3.7% lower than in the third quarter of 2022. If you dont see our email and have already checked your spam or junk folder, please give us a call at 1 (800) 319-0511. Updated January 2023: By searching, you agree to the Terms of Use, andPrivacy Policy. As of November 2022, four consecutive 75 bps increases brought mortgage rates over 7%, reaching their highest level since April 2008 and standing over twice higher as the same time last year. Utah Housing Market Forecast in 2023. REDFIN and all REDFIN variants, TITLE FORWARD, WALK SCORE, and the R logos, are trademarks of Redfin Corporation, registered or pending in the USPTO. The average sale price in the fourth quarter rose a modest .6% from the fourth quarter of 2021 to $604,105. So from that affordability perspective, I think its going to keep the market from accelerating back to have a more positive price appreciation., Wood said thats a good point, but added the 70s and early 80s saw interest rates that hit as high as 18%. There are currently 8,551 residential homes for sale in the United States.. So far, Utah home prices are still up year over year, but theyve so far fallen over 9% from their peak in May, according to Eskic. Wood, who has studied Utah's housing market for decades, forecasts that real estate sales will remain steady in 2022 while home prices will rise 10%-12%. Focus on the unbelievable increase you have gained over the past 10, 5, or even 2 years! The number of days on the market had also increased sharply at 39 median D.o.M., compared to 15 the previous year, further indicating that the days when properties were being snatched off the market as soon as they were listed are long gone. First-time homebuyers will need to be successful in the 2022 housing market if we are going to see the homeownership rate begin to climb again. Homes in Big Willow Creek Estates are under construction in Draper on Friday, Nov. 11, 2022. Yun has said the margin of price declines will likely depend on the region. Winter sports are a highlight in Utah. Its falling off faster than we thought it would.. In 2022, Redfin itself went through two rounds of layoffs. The migration during the Pandemic contributed to the increased demand in the Utah housing market and an increase in housing prices. Median sale price: $611,600. Over the next 12 to 18 months, Eskic said he expects homebuilders to offer big discounts. Not necessarily dramatic price drops, but more buyer incentives and rate buydowns, perhaps offers to finish basements. Copyright 2023 Deseret News Publishing Company. Salt Lake City is the capital and most populous city of Utah, with a population of 200,133, Salt Lake City housing market is somewhat competitive, with listed properties receiving three offers per listing and 24.5% of them selling above the asking price. Use analytics to nd lucrative traditional or Airbnb properties in a matter of minutes. The Utah housing market became one of the most competitive in the country, especially in areas like Salt Lake City and St. George. The best way to describe it, he said, is an abrupt contraction thats had a dramatic effect on all aspects of the market, but especially on homebuilding, which he and Eskic worry will exacerbate Utahs housing shortage long term. price indicates that the housing market is competitive and bidding wars are becoming more common. Is the Utah housing market going to crash in 2023? With a $105,000 annual income, Branca said he was approved to buy a $550,000 home. That's a new high and a 28% jump from the median price of $430,000 in the same time period from 2020. Like West Valley City, West Jordan is considered to be a suburb of the capital city Salt Lake City. That is, after a summer of twist and turns, when prices peaked, interest rates went sky high, buyers were shocked out of the market, and sellers were saying, Wait, how come were not selling the home in two days? 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